[Note to readers: This is the first of a four-part series this week on where President Barack Obama’s presently stalled international agenda is headed, looking to identify key decisions that the White House will have to make by the end of this year. These decisions, one way or the other, will either help expand presently shrinking trade flows, and thus promote enhanced global prosperity and job growth — or they will start throwing American workers out of their jobs.]
Half way through his first year in the Oval Office, Barack Obama’s (slowly emerging) international trade agenda remains stuck in the familiar Washington, D.C. political gridlock that the president inherited. The White House, preoccupied with other priorities like health insurance reform, has refused to go to the mat to obtain congressional passage of preferential trade deals with Panama, Colombia and South Korea that remain stalled on Capitol Hill. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative is not presently conducting serious negotiations to bring the World Trade Organization’s Doha Round of multilateral tariff- and subsidy slashing to a successful conclusion. Rather, Ron Kirk, the president’s top trade negotiator, is first trying to see if he can build a domestic constituency that would support trade expansion. On June 23, Kirk — advancing a case that had been first developed by his predecessor in the George W. Bush administration, Susan Schwab — took China to the WTO’s dispute-resolution process, complaining that the Chinese have been restricting exports of key raw materials like coke and magnesium that US steel mills need to import. And on July 16, Kirk spoke to an audience of cheering steelworkers at a mill some 12 miles southeast of Pittsburgh, in which he offered rhetorical appeals aimed at bridging the gap between advocates and skeptics of free trade. But the wide gap remains. After Kirk spoke, one angry partisan free trader quickly fired off a mass e-mail that said that the Obama administration’s developing trade regime is “pathetic.”
Perhaps the critics ought to consider a little history before they jump to conclusions.
In late July, 1993, half way through his first year as president, Bill Clinton still didn’t really have a clear international trade agenda either. During his successful 1992 presidential campaign, Clinton had expressed ambivalence on trade (much like Barack Obama would do, although using decidedly sharper political rhetoric, in his own winning presidential race 16 years later). Finally, in August, Clinton decided to press for congressional approval of the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico, despite the vehement opposition of the AFL-CIO and the protectionist wing of the Democratic Party, including then-House majority leader Rep. Richard Gephardt and the number two House Democrat, Rep. David Bonior. Unimpressed with Clinton’s display of political courage, in October, 1993, then-minority leader Rep. Newt Gingrich pronounced that Clinton’s efforts to win Nafta approval were “pathetic.”
The abrasive Gingrich — hardly for the first time in his checkered career — was flat-out wrong. Clinton sure didn’t look so pathetic by Dec. 8, 1993, the day that Congress would approve Nafta, which went into force the next month. Now, the question that cannot presently be answered is whether, by the end of this year, Obama will have also shown his mettle to prove the critics wrong.
To understand why the Obama White House is currently in a very weak political position on trade, it’s necessary to look at a little history — to better understand where the last young Democratic occupant of the Oval Office succeeded, and where Bill Clinton failed.
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